Who will win Republican nomination?

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A lot of people are already talking about who will challenge President Obama in the 2012 election. In all likelihood, the only challenger will be a Republican since the Democrats won’t have anyone compete with their own president and there aren’t any serious Independent candidates on the horizon. From all the potential Republican candidates, the ones that are ahead in the polls are only there because they have some level of name recognition. These are people like Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, among others.

Most of the people in this long list are a joke. Undoubtedly, President Obama is hoping and praying that some idiot like Michelle Bachmann or a non-politician like Donald Trump will pull an upset and become the Republican nominee. If such a thing were to occur, we would likely see a historical margin of victory in the election. However, these types of candidates are very unlikely to win the nomination. The question then becomes who will win the Republican nomination and challenge the President.

We can’t over look Mitt Romney, first of all. He ran last time and Republicans like electing someone who is ‘owed’ something by the party. Weird I know, but that’s how they like it. One other person that I would keep an eye on who isn’t getting much air time right now is Tim Pawlenty. This is a man who was the Governor of Minnesota, which is traditionally a Democrat leaning state. He, unlike many other potential Republican candidates is not a complete idiot and does not have baggage. Since he comes from left leaning Minnesota, it may help him with Independents as he won’t be seen as a far-right candidate.

The election process in the U.S. is very long and everything happens under a microscope. Sometimes, the smallest misstep may derail an otherwise well run campaign. This means that no one can guarantee how a candidate will fare in this process. However, I would keep my eye out for Tim Pawlenty and if he does end up winning the nomination, you can remember that I was the first to say he has the best shot a long time before anyone else did.