U.S. mid-term election season starting

 

The U.S. will have a mid-term election later this year, but anyone that follows politics will tell you that it really has already begun. Various politicians have essentially already started to campaign, including the President. Generally, the party in power (in this case, the Democratic Party) tends to lose some Senate and House seats during the mid-term elections. The main reason for this is because nothing ever goes 100% well and the blame usually falls on the party in power.

This time around, we are slowly coming out of a bad recession and that is likely to make the Democrats losses even more pronounced than an average mid-term election. There are however, a few key factors that will really decide who will end up the winner. First and foremost, the economy will be what people think of when they head to the ballot box this fall. We are a little less than half a year away from the elections, which is enough time for people to completely change their view on how the economy is doing and where it is headed. If the elections were held today, then the Democrats would likely see some bigger than usual losses due to a very slow climb from the recession. However, if in the next several months the climb starts to accelerate, then this can help the Democrats a lot.

The better the economy is, the better it is for the Democrats and the worse it is, the better it is for the Republicans. For the Republicans, it is not only important to win as many seats as they can for obvious reasons, but also because if they obtain more equal power in the House and Senate, they will be able to make the President’s job  much more difficult. In this case, it will become even tougher to pass the bills that he wants passed and this can end up making the remainder of his first term a lot less productive. A less productive president is much easier to beat in 2012 than a highly productive one.

For Americans (and really the rest of the world, too), it is probably better to have more Democrats in power rather than put in more Republicans. At the end of the day, a less productive Washington is not good for the people and their problems. The Republicans have to be concerned about this emerging Tea Party which is basically Republicans that are unhappy with their party. This has the potential to benefit Democrats in some places because the Republican votes can be split in two, leaving the Democratic candidates with the most votes.

The other major factor that can determine this mid-term election is the candidates themselves. In states where there are large cities which hold most of the votes, Republican candidates will likely remind voters why they did not elect them in 2008. Many of their views and arguments leave people outside of the U.S. laughing and shaking their heads because they seem to have fairly simplistic ideas (I don’t mean that in a good way). They often just say what is bad about their opponents without actually providing a viable alternative solution of their own. They even sometimes try to directly argue with President Obama, which is not a good move because he is a master at this type of game.

Overall, it appears that the Democratic Party will likely lose some seats in the House and Senate this fall, which is bad for people and business. However, the Republicans may end up shooting themselves in the foot a little once we actually hear what they have to say.