Bold Prediction

I have been following a story out of the world of politics for some time now and I am ready to make a bold prediction. Before I make this prediction, I want to first explain why I am delving into politics. Although world politics is a subject that I have a fair bit of knowledge about and am interested in greatly, I have tried to not discuss it in my articles because they do not often have much to do with business in a direct way. However, this prediction does have to do with business. So what is my prediction?

A war will take place between Israel and either Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon in the not too distant future.

Now this may not seem like much of prediction since it seems there is a war in this region almost every other year, but it is my reasoning behind the prediction that is bold. A story that was first reported on Wednesday and you can read about it on BBC News that an Israeli owned defense company called Rafael Advanced Defense Systems LTD. has successfully tested a short range missile defense system capable of destroying the World War II era rockets that Hamas and Hezbollah use against Israel. I would like to give a more specific time frame on my war prediction but I am limited by the technology’s development status. The system, dubbed ‘Iron Dome’ is said to be ready for deployment in mid 2010 but, full deployment by the Israeli Defense Forces could be as long as 2.5 years from now. I will say that I expect this war to take place within a year from the time this system is fully deployed by Israel and is ready to be used in a real time war scenario. There is no way to determine how wide a scale this war will be but, it will definitely involve rockets being launched from Gaza or Lebanon (or both). I don’t know if they will actually land in Israel and cause injury or death, that depends on this new system. I also don’t know what type of response Israel will have as they may not feel too threatened if their new system works well.

So what does a war have to do with the emergence of this system? And, what on earth does this have to do with business? Well, this is largely about business. Of course, Israel is committed to defending its citizens as every democratic country is (or should be). However, this system is also integral to its economic power as Israel is among the world leaders in military technologies. Moreover, this system is likely going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars and each defense missile it launches will run in the tens of thousands per missile. The only way to not only recoup this money but make good money on this incredibly important and triumphant technology is to sell it to its allies like the US and other ‘friendly’ countries. With this type of groundbreaking technology, especially when it is as expensive as it is, the only way you can really sell it is with a real life demonstration. Tests alone will never sell this system, it has to be used against the enemy it is designed to defend against.

I am not trying to sound like a conspiracy theorist here because I assure you I am not. I am a business person who has a great deal of knowledge and understanding on how the world works and this is a part of business, life and the way our world works. I am also not trying to make it seem like Israel will be starting some war in order to make a profit. They need to show their adversaries that they have the upper hand as this is crucial for their security. Every other nation on earth would do the exact same thing if they were in that situation. Many would do it even if profit was the only reason and security would was not a factor. The lesson here is in how the world works. Sometimes tactics that may seem unconscionably greedy on the surface are actually very important to a nation’s well being and it is important to always be looking for more than just a simple answer to world events.

Real photo of an Iron Dome missile intercepting an incoming Qassam rocket during a test.

Real photo of an Iron Dome missile intercepting an incoming rocket during a test.